Energy Absorption Analysis and Load Forecasting in Integrated Nepal Power System
Authors: Pramish Shrestha, Namrata Tusuju Shrestha, Alisha Paudel, Sharad Bahadur Karmacharya, Brajesh Mishra
Abstract— Nepal’s electricity sector has been suffering from an energy deficit for several years. With the commissioning of the number of hydropower projects in the next few years, substantial surplus energy would be generated in the Integrated Nepal Power System (INPS). It would, therefore require proper planning and strategy for optimal utilization of electricity. This research presents the load forecast for the next 17 years using an econometric model where future demand is a function of certain demand driving variables for each consumer category in Nepal’s electricity sector. The models treat consumers sector as domestic, industrial, commercial , and irrigation, differently as the demand determining variables. The demand during the year 2017 A.D has been considered as the base year for the base case, low growth case and high growth case scenarios. These scenarios are the variability in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for different groups of consumers, including new consumer number. The forecast was done up to the year 2035 A.D. This study also presents the energy absorption of Phukot Karnali and Betan Karnali hydro-electric power project in INPS using the platform, Wien Automated System Planning Package (WASP).
Keywords— load forecast, energy absorption, surplus, deficit, unserved energy, loss of load probability.
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Published In: International Conference on Role of Energy for Sustainable Social Development in ‘New Normal’ Era (RESSD-2020)
Date of Conference: 28th-29th December 2020
Conference Location: Kathmandu, Nepal
Publisher: IEEE Power and Energy Society Nepal Chapter
Cite the paper as:
P. Shrestha, N. T. Shrestha, A. Paudel, S. B. Karmacharya, B. Mishra, “Energy Absorption Analysis and Load Forecasting in Integrated Nepal Power System”, International Conference on Role of Energy for Sustainable Social Development in ‘New Normal’ Era, 28th-29th December 2020, Kathmandu, Nepal