Weather-Model Based Probabilistic Dynamic Thermal Rating Forecasting of Transmission Line: Feasibility Assessment for INPS Reinforcement
Authors: Bishnu P. Neupane, Nava Raj Karki , Mahammad Badrudoza
Abstract—The current carrying capacity of an overhead transmission line conductor is governed by its heat carrying capacity that is further limited by weather factors. Conventionally, the thermal rating of a conductor is designed considering the worst probable weather conditions i.e. low wind velocity and highest ambient air temperature. Also, the effect of wind incidence angle and heat loss due to precipitation cooling is being neglected. Dynamic Thermal Rating (DTR) is the actual time assessment of the capability of a conductor determined by measured and forecasted weather data at that particular time. With DTR integration, the existing transmission system can be operated more efficiently maintaining the required power transmission system security level. This study provides a scheme for probabilistic DTR forecasting by solving difficulties like the availability of historical weather data, forecasting uncertainties, and topological factors along the transmission line. A regression model is designed for forecasting the weather in real-time. Minimum span thermal capacity is determined among all critical spans using forecasted weather data to estimate the real-time DTR of the transmission line. Numerical testing for this scheme is performed and analyzed on different transmission line segments of the Integrated Nepalese Power System (INPS).
Keywords— Dynamic thermal rating, probabilistic forecasting, transmission line, weather model, INPS
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Published In: International Conference on Role of Energy for Sustainable Social Development (RESSD-2022)
Date of Conference: 8th-9th August 2022
Conference Location: Bhaktapur, Nepal
Publisher: IEEE Power and Energy Society Nepal Chapter
Cite the paper as:
B. P. Neupane, N. R. Karki , M. Badrudoza, “Weather-Model Based Probabilistic Dynamic Thermal Rating Forecasting of Transmission Line: Feasibility Assessment for INPS Reinforcement”, International Conference on Role of Energy for Sustainable Social Development, 8th-9th August 2022, Bhaktapur, Nepal